The slowdown in BUSLOANS doesn't look like 2000 or 2007, it looks like the early 1990s.
Powell was against QE3 thinking the economy would "break out" in 2014 or 2015 because that's what the Fed economists predicted would happen. If he was against QE3 then, and everyone thinks things are better now when credit growth is much slower, then he may hike more or faster than expected and delay reversing policy.
Inflation expectations for the 5y and 10y are still below 2014 highs.
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