Although long term patterns were not really hitting over the last couple of weeks i was busy day trading on the shorter time frames. Having said that EUR/USD pattern posted in W32 stub
just got completed at the FX open on Friday with gap down as low as 1.3182. Having EUR very much bearish across the board, some pullback north is very likely from 1.32's level.
Weekly Currency Board
Short AUD/USD long USD/CAD
Shorts GBP/JPY and USD/JPY
Prime Risk Events (UTC time)
German IFO business climate (Aug), 9.00am:
The leading data point fell to 108.0 in July, marking a third consecutive monthly decline and missing estimates of 109.4. Expectations are for a print of 107 now. Market to watch: EUR/USD, DAXUS services PMI (Aug) 14.45pm:
This hit 60.8 in July – it is expected to pare back a little to 59.1 in August. Market to watch: US Indices, dollar crosses US new home sales (Jul), 3.00pm:
Housing data stateside has been decent lately. The prior number was 406,000; it is expected to print 425000 this time. Market to watch: US Indices, dollar crosses
BBA mortgage approvals (July), 9.30am:
Number of new mortgage approvals is expected to improve on last month to 44,000. Market to watch: GBP/USD, FTSE, EUR/GBPUS core durable goods orders (July), 1.30pm:
This was weak last month, with a rise of 0.7% recorded. A rise of 7.5% month-on-month is expected now. Market to watch: Dow Jones, dollar crossesCB consumer confidence (August) 3.00pm:
Expected to decline from last month’s 90.9 to 88.8. Market to watch: Dow Jones, dollar crosses
German GFK consumer confidence (August), 7.00am:
A small reduction on last month’s 9.0 print to 8.9 is expected. Market to watch: DAX, EUR/USDCrude oil inventories (week end 28 August), 3.30pm:
Inventories decreased by 4.5 million barrels in the week ending 15 August. Market to watch: Oil, Dollar index
German preliminary CPI (August), 1.00pm:
An increase of 0.3% was recorded in July; it is expected to come in flat in August. Year-on-year figure is expected to stay at 0.8%. Market to watch: Euro crosses, DAX, BundsEurozone M3 money supply (July), 9.00am:
Expected to stay static at 1.5% YoY. Market to watch: EUR/USD, European indicesUS preliminary GDP q/q (Q2) 1.30pm:
The previous version was 2.0%. It is expected to stay the same on the quarter. Market to watch: Dollar crosses, global indices.US unemployment claims (Aug 23) 1.30pm:
Expected to see a small increase on the previous week; 300,000 weekly claims expected. Market to watch: Dow Jones, SPX, EUR/USD, USD crossesUS pending home sales (July) 3.00pm:
This fell by 1.1% last time round. A small increase of 0.5% MoM is slated now. Market to watch: EUR/USD, Dow Jones, SPX, dollar crosses
Japanese CPI (July), 12.30am:
Saw a year on year rise of 3.6% last time. Expected to fall back to 3.4% YoY now. Market to watch: Nikkei, yen crossesJapanese industrial production (July), 12.50am:
An improvement on last month’s number (-3.4%) to 1.3% MoM expected. Market to watch: Nikkei, yen crossesJapanese retail sales (July), 12.50am:
A rise of 0.3% on the month is the consensus which equates to a decline of -0.1% annualised. Market to watch: Nikkei, yen crossesEurozone CPI estimate (August), 10.00am:
Inflation is expected to remain subdued at a 0.3% rise YoY. This is lower than last month’s 0.4%. Market to watch: EUR/USD, FTSE, DAX, CACUS Chicago PMI (August),2.45pm:
Improvement on last month’s disappointing 52.6 is the forecast here. 56.2 print is the median consensus. Dollar crosses, US indices.
In terms of the setups there is nothing much on patterns side at the moment, however earlier mentioned 3σ analysis is pointing towards over extension on weekly chart around 104's levels. Will be looking for pullback south from those levels at least temporarily, see the chart below.
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