Bullish pattern on EUR/USD posted last week got completed last week and gave a chance to capture about +80 pips from Maximum Favorable Excursion (MFE) perspective. The pair reversed from about 1.3's level after FED rates announcement. Highly correlated setup on USD/CHF got invalidated prior to completion as this market dived south much earlier than anticipated prior to earlier mentioned FED release. GBP gained strength as anticipated on the back of NO vote being very much captured prior to the referendum vote.
Coming week is likely to have less fireworks in terms of events likely to move the markets.
Weekly Currency Board
Long AUD/USD, AUD/CAD
Short USD/JPY, long AUD/USD
Shorts USD/JPY, GBP/JPY,CAD/JPY
Short CAD/JPY, long AUD/CAD
Prime Risk Events (UTC time)
Chicago Federal Reserve index (Aug), 1.30pm:
Having hit 0.39 last month, the reading is expected to fall to 0.26. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crossesExisting home sales (August), 3pm:
The annualised rate is forecast to drop to 4.7 million, from 5.15 million last month. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses
HSBC China manufacturing PMI (September), 2.45am:
The previous reading just hung on in expansion territory at 50.2. Market to watch: China A50, Hang Seng, AUD/USD, CopperFrench GDP (Q2, final), 7.45am:
No change is expected to the previous reading, at MoM growth of 0% and YoY growth of 0.1%. Market to watch: CAC40, EUR/USD, EUR/GBPFrench, German, eurozone services, manufacturing PMIs (September preliminary), 8.00 – 9am:
These readings will be crucial to gauge whether the eurozone economies are seeing any growth, and are broadly expected to register a small expansion. Market to watch: EStoxx 50, CAC 40, DAX, EUR/USD, EUR/GBPUS manufacturing PMI (September, preliminary), 2.45pm:
From an August reading of 57.9, the September reading is expected to fall back to 54.29. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crossesRichmond Fed manufacturing index (September), 3pm:
The August figure for this indicator was 12, with any increase boosting confidence in the US economic recovery. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses
German IFO (September), 9am:
This closely watched indicator aids investors in determining the current outlook for the German economy. The business climate indicator is expected to rise from August’s 106.3 to 107.5. Market to watch: DAX, EUR/USD, EUR/GBPUS new home sales (August), 3pm:
This figure is expected to accelerate to an annual rate of 439.9K, from July’s 412K. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crossesEnergy Information Administration crude oil inventories, 3.30pm:
The weekly data release helps to gauge whether US crude demand is rising or falling. Market to watch: US light crude
US initial jobless claims, durable goods orders (August), 1.30pm:
Jobless claims are expected to rise to 302K from 280K this week, while durable goods orders are expected to drop by 0.24%, after a strong July rise of 22.6% skewed by aircraft orders. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crossesUS services PMI (September, preliminary), 2.45pm:
After hitting 59.5 in August, the September reading is expected to decline to 55.74. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses
Japanese CPI (August), 12.30am:
From 3.4% a month ago, the inflation rate is expected to edge back to 3.29%. Market to watch: Nikkei 225, USD/JPYUS GDP (Q2, third reading), 1.30pm:
US economic growth is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2% for the quarter. Market to watch: all major indices, currency pairsMichigan confidence index (September, final), 2.55pm:
The final reading for the month is not expected to change from the 84.6 of the second reading. Market to watch: US indices, dollar crosses
Lack of potential setups for now
As is stands at the moment there is nothing on my radar that is worth getting attention, however some of them may develop as the week progresses. If you want to got those you can subscribe to more insights on the top left.
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