Browse Symbol Stacks: $GOLD: 20160730_2golds.png

20160730_2golds.png

I don't say gold is not in bull market. Just keep in mind there is bear case. The difference between now and 1982 is the president. Ronald Reagan have been libertarian like Margaret Thatcher was.  
Regardless of who wins in November the next US president will be an economically-illiterate populist.

Restack of 20160730_2golds.png added by Dimon.
20160730_2golds.png

Comments

ClawsClaws
The economists are economically illiterate now. There is no chance they'll be any better next year or the year after. When nothing makes sense the people that make no sense rule. 7/30/16
DimonDimon
illiteracy and state-controlled economy is bullish for gold :) that's the difference now and 80th 7/30/16
SILVER SINGULARITYSILVER SINGULARITY
The biggest differences that matters: 
In june of 1982 when gold was at 300, S&P index (without dividends,remember!) was 110... ya... 
In 2016 when gold was at 1045 S&P was around 2075 
FED funds rates where around 10% in 1982 now?... 0,50% and even worse: at the end of the tightening cycle ! 
this tightening cycle began in 2013 with the taper talks, then the real taper, then no QE at all, then a 0,25% rise in interest rates. 
 
Saying "rates are very low" is EXACTLY saying the same thing as "money is in abundance" even if you don't see it in the real life! In fact when we gonna start seeing it(in the real economy), it's when the purchasing power of that money will fall (gold and other consumables goes up in price) so much so that you will have more money (maybe much much more) but you gonna be able to buy less real goods or services with that new amount of money. 
That's the effect of the whole monetary system on the long run 
 
So money is still in abundance and, looking forward, gonna be more (maybe waaaaayyyy more than everybody anticipate) because of the new easing cycle the fed will start. 
 
For gold it's a new bull market (potentially huge) that gonna start  
I think the market already reversed but the low is not in and will be caused by a flash crash followed by an even bigger flash surge... 
That would explain why mining stocks are so aggressively bought with extreme volume 
(smart money trying to get in those tiny markets without using leverage) 7/30/16
SILVER SINGULARITYSILVER SINGULARITY
So when gold REBOUNDED from $300 in 1982, that was the equivalent of REBOUNDING from... $...5930 today! (and way more if you include dividends of S&P during those 34 years) 
Got it? 7/30/16
SILVER SINGULARITYSILVER SINGULARITY
Only my opinion but I think gold's twin, silver, will be a monster! 
But hell in earth for leveraged buyers. 
For sellers, they don't even have to be on leverage to meet hell with silver! 
So, only options or buy side without leverage, for your sake 7/30/16
DimonDimon
To have gold price above $5000 big drop of confidence to financial system must happen. I don't expect this next few years. If low interest rate or new QE boost new economic boom then confidence will survive. In this case we will have strong bull trend in commodity sector (including gold), but not strong enough to take price of gold to $5000 (gold is expensive to other commodities already) 7/30/16
SILVER SINGULARITYSILVER SINGULARITY
A drop of confidence in the financial system means a drop in confidence in the banking system wich is exactly what happened in 2008 
Gold didn't exploded that year to say the least but rised in the years that followed as confidence was gradually coming back. 7/31/16
DimonDimon
http://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX:$BKX&compare=$GOLD&id=p41785093082 - Gold corelate with $SPX:$BKX (measure of confidence in the financial system) 7/31/16
DimonDimon
of course the confidence is not the only gold price driver. There are others: real interest rate, dollar index, the overall commodity-price trend. 7/31/16
SILVER SINGULARITYSILVER SINGULARITY
The right way for me to measure confidence in the financial system is looking at the TED spread 
https://www.crystalbull.com/stock-market-timing/TED- Spread-chart/ 
As it is an interest rate, it can be used kind of a bounded indicator 
And show that today confidence is higher than in 2011 at the height of the european debt crisis 8/1/16
SILVER SINGULARITYSILVER SINGULARITY
Sorry the links seems to bug. 
It's the right URL yet, I don't understand 8/1/16
Holy Hand GrenadeHoly Hand Grenade
Silver, do you subscribe to Crystal Bull and do you like it?? 8/1/16
SILVER SINGULARITYSILVER SINGULARITY
I don't know what you're talking about. 
So I guess the response is no but what is that? 8/1/16
SILVER SINGULARITYSILVER SINGULARITY
ok got it lol 
I just found this site by looking for TED spread on google 
But free content and interface seems pretty good, that's the only thing I can say 8/1/16
DimonDimon
I would recomend to read book "Nobody Knows Anything" by Bob Moriarty. It's short and very intresting. It's about investing. 8/1/16