User: Tim Knight: Historical Example

2018-03-28_10-58-41.jpg (890×455)
2018-03-28_10-58-41.jpg (890×455)
The last time SMART money and the market diverged this much did not end well for stocks...
Tim Knight
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longest bull markets.jpg (890×543)
longest bull markets.jpg (890×543)
We are in the second longest bull market in history
Tim Knight
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bubble trouble 2.jpg (890×497)
bubble trouble 2.jpg (890×497)
Asset bubbles over the past 40 years
Tim Knight
jpm debt cbo forecast.jpg (763×481)
jpm debt cbo forecast.jpg (763×481)
Debt/GDP ratio (and this is based on a hugely OPTIMISTIC forecast by the geniuses in the Fed Govt)
Tim Knight
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Bull-market-DJIA.jpg (554×565)
Bull-market-DJIA.jpg (554×565)
Biggest bull markets of all time
Tim Knight
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joe-friday-dow-at-top-of-70-year-channel-momentum-seldom-seen-march-2.jpg (1565×682)
joe-friday-dow-at-top-of-70-year-channel-momentum-seldom-seen-march...
Similarities to 1929, 1987, 2000 & 2007 in play
Tim Knight
Long-Term.png (1078×796)
Long-Term.png (1078×796)
Interest rate history
Tim Knight
TSY tax forecast.jpg (1299×854)
TSY tax forecast.jpg (1299×854)
Mnuchin has fallen in line behind his boss and repeatedly asserted that the US would make up for lost tax revenue...
Tim Knight
market rates before crash.jpg (862×444)
market rates before crash.jpg (862×444)
"Every market crash has been preceded by Fed tightening."
Tim Knight
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SP500-1999-2007-2016-Comparision-021818.png (1100×688)
SP500-1999-2007-2016-Comparision-021818.png (1100×688)
Tim Knight
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Recessions-Recovery-021918.png (900×511)
Recessions-Recovery-021918.png (900×511)
Tim Knight
sc-1108.png (990×788)
sc-1108.png (990×788)
1929 Throwover Top
Tim Knight
II bulls.jpg (890×416)
II bulls.jpg (890×416)
Stock Market Optimism Hits Highest Level Since Crash Of 1987
Tim Knight
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dj 25000.jpg (600×338)
dj 25000.jpg (600×338)
Big Round Numbers and the Dow
Tim Knight
5-1.jpg (759×491)
5-1.jpg (759×491)
As it stands it’s been around 80 days now there hasn’t been an either 1% up or down move on the $SPX. 5% pullback...
Tim Knight
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VXO.png (1630×766)
VXO.png (1630×766)
However in this case markets have been subject to unprecedented volatility compression. Never has a year or quarte...
Tim Knight
assets.jpg (1490×980)
assets.jpg (1490×980)
Assets to GDP - yet another extreme never before seen in the history of the universe
Tim Knight
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2007-1.png (1608×672)
2007-1.png (1608×672)
The brilliant 2008 forecasts from the "experts", including the hideously ugly Abby Joseph Cohen.
Tim Knight
20171215_HY3.jpg (1019×1080)
20171215_HY3.jpg (1019×1080)
This is "unusual... Must Watch"
Tim Knight
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20171213_seas6.png (768×893)
20171213_seas6.png (768×893)
Fascinating
Tim Knight
20171201_accel2.png (960×563)
20171201_accel2.png (960×563)
The Global FInancial Crisis bubble
Tim Knight
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20171130_never.jpg (1161×586)
20171130_never.jpg (1161×586)
Unless the world comes to a very serious end overnight, global equity markets are about to do something they have...
Tim Knight
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Contra Corner » Chart of the Day: Look Out Below!
Contra Corner » Chart of the Day: Look Out Below!
Tim Knight
AAPL in context_1
AAPL in context_1
A surprising perspective
Tim Knight
20171115_EOD8.jpg (959×1008)
20171115_EOD8.jpg (959×1008)
A beautiful analog...........
Tim Knight
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20171110_eod10.jpg (965×509)
20171110_eod10.jpg (965×509)
first 12 month period in the history of the S&P 500 without a 3% drawdown. The VIX is also the lowest on record us...
Tim Knight
2
20171108_nasd.jpg (755×495)
20171108_nasd.jpg (755×495)
No 52-week high in the Nasdaq 100 has ever been accompanied by as few advancing stocks as today’s.
Tim Knight
1
20171106_huss3.jpg (668×564)
20171106_huss3.jpg (668×564)
On this measure, market valuations are now more extreme than at any point in history, including the 1929 and 2000...
Tim Knight
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20171106_huss1.jpg (663×521)
20171106_huss1.jpg (663×521)
The chart below shows the median price/revenue ratio of S&P 500 component stocks, which set yet another record hig...
Tim Knight
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bofa vol 1.jpg (678×408)
bofa vol 1.jpg (678×408)
We have now recorded 334 days without a 5% or more pullback (and 335 after today's close), the fourth longest peri...
Tim Knight
1
20171023_EOD2.jpg (961×486)
20171023_EOD2.jpg (961×486)
It has now been 242 days since the US equity market dipped by 3% or more... That has never, ever, happened before..
Tim Knight
2
3-Phases-Bull-Market-101917.png (900×673)
3-Phases-Bull-Market-101917.png (900×673)
As I have shown previously, these late stage “melt-ups” are not uncommon. In fact, as shown below, it is somethin...
Tim Knight
2
Dow-1000point-Closes-2009-Present.png (1758×960)
Dow-1000point-Closes-2009-Present.png (1758×960)
The chart below shows the 1000-point milestones of the Dow going back to 2009. After a long break between 18,000 a...
Tim Knight
valuation 18 out of 20 bofa.jpg (956×603)
valuation 18 out of 20 bofa.jpg (956×603)
The S&P 500 Is Now Overvalued On 18 Of 20 Metrics
Tim Knight
20171007_stock.jpg (962×504)
20171007_stock.jpg (962×504)
As StockBoardAsset shows on the 24-year monthly ratio chart below, bulls have pushed the S&P:VIX price into uncharted...
Tim Knight
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20170816_best4.png (1175×619)
20170816_best4.png (1175×619)
The Dow has hit 31 all-time highs in 2017 and has done so with no more than a 3% pullback.
Tim Knight
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20170816_best1.jpg (508×489)
20170816_best1.jpg (508×489)
The S&P 500 has not seen a drawdown of more than 3% since the election last November. As PensionPartners' Charlie...
Tim Knight
20170811_EOD12.jpg (1182×617)
20170811_EOD12.jpg (1182×617)
My favorite analog right now...........
Tim Knight
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Logarithmic-Chart-Stock-Market-Crash-1929.jpg (553×373)
Logarithmic-Chart-Stock-Market-Crash-1929.jpg (553×373)
Crash of 1929 - this is what I keep hidden under my mattress.
Tim Knight
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20170714_eod6.jpg (1185×614)
20170714_eod6.jpg (1185×614)
The stock market is near peak euphoria here (tracked by the ratio of Fwd P/E to VIX)...
Tim Knight
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Investor-Psychology-100k-062417.png (900×541)
Investor-Psychology-100k-062417.png (900×541)
A long view of the psychology of the markets
Tim Knight
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SP500-Comparison-061617.png (1102×687)
SP500-Comparison-061617.png (1102×687)
Historically speaking, such levels of exuberance have tended to have poor outcomes for investors who did not reali...
Tim Knight
Hedge Funds Have Never Been This Bullish About Small-Cap Stocks | Zero Hedge
Hedge Funds Have Never Been This Bullish About Small-Cap Stocks...
Over 57,000 Russell 2000 e-mini contract longs were added in the last two weeks - the most since July 2008 - leavi...
Tim Knight
1
20170615_EOD6.jpg (960×486)
20170615_EOD6.jpg (960×486)
Notably, the US Macro Surprise Index has dropped for 13 straight weeks (since The Fed hiked in March) - this is th...
Tim Knight
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stock-bond-ratio-could-be-creating-double-top-and-hands-pattern-june-15.jpg (1293×675)
stock-bond-ratio-could-be-creating-double-top-and-hands-pattern-jun...
Below looks at the Stock/Bond ratio (SPX/ZROZ), using the two assets from above. The ratio in our humble opinion,...
Tim Knight
20170512_EOD3.jpg (965×971)
20170512_EOD3.jpg (965×971)
The last time US Macro and stocks decoupled like this was in mid 2015 and did not end well for stocks...
Tim Knight
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2017.05.03 - Prudent Speculator 2.jpg (1254×1080)
2017.05.03 - Prudent Speculator 2.jpg (1254×1080)
'Reputable' Investing Newsletter To Millennials: "If You Do Not Have 100% In Equities, You Are Crazy"
Tim Knight
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spy-nifty-50-chart-april-18.jpg (1567×736)
spy-nifty-50-chart-april-18.jpg (1567×736)
It was 50 stocks back then, just add a “0” today and make it the nifty 500? S&P 500 Long-Term “Weekly” Chart
Tim Knight
transports-could-be-repeating-1999-and-2007-pattern-april-6.jpg (1570×730)
transports-could-be-repeating-1999-and-2007-pattern-april-6.jpg...
The transports are a key cog in our economy, so they also tend to be a key indicator for stocks historically.
Tim Knight
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20170402_bonds.jpg (768×452)
20170402_bonds.jpg (768×452)
Stock-To-Bond Ratio Back At 2007 Peak
Tim Knight